Thucydides’s Trap 修昔底德陷阱

希拉蕊「賣台真相」

這兩天看了好些「希拉蕊賣台」貼文，從報導，議論，到大呼小叫的都有，覺得很搞笑。下面是我不自量力的分析。為了行文方便，下文將中英夾雜，請見諒。

先全文引述一篇Taiwan Passport Sticker的評論：

希拉蕊在電子郵件中表示「放任中國併吞台灣以換取美國對中國債務減免」很「CLEVER」

在台灣，有許多人表示對於美國民主黨總統參選人希拉蕊克林頓女士（Hillary Clinton）飲恨落選感到惋惜，但TPS小編希望在這裡提醒大家：「美國總統不管是誰當選，他或是她的任務就是捍衛美國的國家利益。為了這個利益，美國隨時都願意出賣其他國家，包括台灣。台灣要成為主權獨立的『台灣共和國 Republic of Taiwan』，台灣人要保衛台灣的自由與民主，最終靠著還是自己。」 

在 Wikileaks維基解密所公布的希拉蕊私人郵件中，有著這麼一封對於台灣人來說讀起來特別殘酷的信件。再五年前的今天（2011年11月11日），希拉蕊克林頓的顧問Jake Sullivan分享了一篇Paul V. Kane所撰寫的名為《拯救我們的經濟，拋棄台灣吧！To Save Our Economy, Ditch Taiwan》文章，文章中建議歐巴馬政府讓任中國併吞台灣，藉此換取中國政府註銷對美國的1.14兆美元債權，讓美國政府在不增稅的情況下減緩可能到來的國債危機。 

然後當時為美國國務卿的希拉蕊克林頓簡短地回覆「I saw it and thought it was so clever. Let’s discuss.（我看到了這篇文章，我覺得這想法很聰明，讓我們來討論吧）」。希拉蕊克林頓即使在檯面上說著要重返亞太，但私底下卻也對於「拋棄台灣以拯救美國國債問題」表示「so clever」，讀到這裡，您應該可以感受到，美國對於台灣問題的態度有多麼現實吧！ 

台灣社論對於哪一位美國總統候選人選上，「對台灣比較好」，有許多討論。TPS小編建議，我們可以換個角度想想，台灣人要爭取獨立，當前與其寄望外來勢力的幫助，不如先整建好台灣的實力以及紛紛擾擾的內部共識。讓成立「台灣共和國 Republic of Taiwan」成為台灣人的主流意識，讓台灣民族相信自己可以決定台灣的未來，讓台灣成為一個民主自由、注重人權、富足發達的國度，才是我們目前最必須要積極努力的方向！

此文寫於去年11月。為何BuzzOrange等中英文媒體兩個月後重提舊事且引起廣泛注意，不得而知。

先說回維基解密公布的那篇希拉蕊電郵：Hillary Clinton於2011年11月11日回覆她的Deputy Chief of Staff/Director of Policy Planning Jake Sullivan的電郵。在原電郵中，Sullivan附錄Paul Kane剛發表在紐約時報Opinion Pages的一篇評論文章To Save Our Economy, Ditch Taiwan（為了挽救我們的經濟，拋棄台灣：文中建議美國跟中國閉門商討，以註銷中國所持的美國國債為條件，換取美國放棄保護台灣）。當時Sullivan在以"Interesting article"為題的電郵正文寫著：

For your reading pleasure while you endure open governance and try to steal glances at your blackberry:

可見當時希拉蕊正主持或參與某會議，Sullivan傳給她一篇他認為有意思的文章，讓她不時偷看手機閱讀解悶。希拉蕊約半小時後回覆：

I saw it and thought it was so clever. Let's discuss. 

Also, we only have 15 minutes left in here.

希拉蕊說：已讀，非常聰明。我們談談吧。

由此可見，這電郵往來，其實是她跟助手忙中偷閒電郵往來，調子輕鬆，根本不是什麼正式的政策建議交流。至於其後是否真有就此文章談談，無從稽考。

所以，Taiwan Passport Sticker和近幾天的煞有介事評論/譴責/反思，大大過頭了。

至於Paul Kane的文章，也可略作補充。列位看官，雖說2011年底美國仍在金融風暴打擊下艱難爬起，不覺得他的閉門交易建議非常誇張嗎？但這可是登在紐約時報的評論啊！文章發表後幾天，Kane其實曾向兩家傳媒發表補充，表明他同意"GDP matters more than force"的看法，擔憂美國作為超級大國卻債台高築，且要花國力維護對自身戰略利益不高（保護台灣）的事項。不過，就那閉門交易建議而言，只是satire，不能當真：

What is hilarious is that some academics in Taiwan and elsewhere stayed up late at night reading the piece literally and trying to build cases to refute its content, and castigating my logic and morals, and cooking-up deep financial analysis of how a deal would impact the U.S. Treasury Bill markets… Take your wife out to dinner! Professor or Joe Blogger, it was time miss spent.

個人認為，Hillary Clinton和Jake Sullivan等老手，怎會看不出來，不過覺得文章interesting/clever，值得一讀而已。


相關閱讀：
- 黎蝸藤：政治潔癖幼稚病下的「希拉蕊棄台論」


------------------------------

美國以某種形式跟中國交易，以巨大經濟利益換取放棄保護台灣的承諾，有可能嗎？

個人看法是，當今美國政壇內，不論共和黨還是民主黨人，跟Paul Kane想法原則上相近的，大有人在。但敢於提出討論（更不要說倡議付諸實行）的恐怕絕少。

但即將上任美國總統的Donald Trump，一不是美國政壇建制份子（且非常敵視建制），二是倡導Make America Great Again的生意人，不能排除他會嘗試走這路徑。選舉前，說川普（特朗普）上台，中國將是大贏家的，固然太天真。當選後上任前，從他的言行猜度中國會是大輸家的，也是太早下定論。

Trump本人，對「賣台換利」或「棄一中保台灣」都沒什麼堅持。從目前跡象看，他上台後會先以後者向中國施壓「謀利」。至於他接著會不會轉走「賣台換利」路線？很難說，但比較清楚的是，「賣台換利」和「棄一中」看似兩個極端，其實從生意人角度看並不。台灣，恐怕難免成為Trump的談判籌碼（bargaining chips）。

Let's discuss 我們談談吧......

時代之音：我們為何築牆 Why We Build The Wall

Why do we build the wall?
My children, my children
Why do we build the wall?

Why do we build the wall?
We build the wall to keep us free
That's why we build the wall
We build the wall to keep us free

How does the wall keep us free?
My children, my children
How does the wall keep us free?

How does the wall keep us free?
The wall keeps out the enemy
And we build the wall to keep us free
That's why we build the wall
We build the wall to keep us free

Who do we call the enemy?
My children, my children
Who do we call the enemy?

Who do we call the enemy?
The enemy is poverty
And the wall keeps out the enemy
And we build the wall to keep us free
That's why we build the wall
We build the wall to keep us free

Because we have and they have not!
My children, my children
Because they want what we have got!

Because we have and they have not!
Because they want what we have got!
The enemy is poverty
And the wall keeps out the enemy
And we build the wall to keep us free
That's why we build the wall
We build the wall to keep us free

What do we have that they should want?
My children, my children
What do we have that they should want?

What do we have that they should want?
We have a wall to work upon!
We have work and they have none
And our work is never done
My children, my children
And the war is never won
The enemy is poverty
And the wall keeps out the enemy
And we build the wall to keep us free
That's why we build the wall
We build the wall to keep us free
We build the wall to keep us free

How Trump Happened

Joseph Stiglitz: How Trump Happened

There are two messages US political elites should be hearing. The simplistic neo-liberal market-fundamentalist theories that have shaped so much economic policy during the last four decades are badly misleading, with GDP growth coming at the price of soaring inequality. Trickle-down economics hasn’t and won’t work. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum. The Thatcher-Reagan “revolution,” which rewrote the rules and restructured markets for the benefit of those at the top, succeeded all too well in increasing inequality, but utterly failed in its mission to increase growth. 

This leads to the second message: we need to rewrite the rules of the economy once again, this time to ensure that ordinary citizens benefit. Politicians in the US and elsewhere who ignore this lesson will be held accountable. Change entails risk. But the Trump phenomenon – and more than a few similar political developments in Europe – has revealed the far greater risks entailed by failing to heed this message: societies divided, democracies undermined, and economies weakened.

Related readings:
- Yascha Mounk: Trumpism: A New Era in World Politics?
- Stephen Walt: The Collapse of the Liberal World Order

這個世界會好嗎？

這個世界會好嗎？-梁漱溟晚年口述:

1918年11月7日，梁漱溟的父親梁濟正準備出門，遇到漱溟，二人談起關於歐戰的一則新聞。梁濟問道：「世界會好嗎？」漱溟回答：「我相信世界是一天一天往好裡去的。」「能好就好啊！」梁濟說罷就離開了家。三天之後，梁濟投凈業湖自盡。

來來來，聽歌好了，李志《這個世界會好嗎 2015版》

How The Arab World Came Apart

(New York Times Magazine, 2016-8-11) Fractured Lands: How The Arab World Came Apart

This is a story unlike any we have previously published. It is much longer than the typical New York Times Magazine feature story; in print, it occupies an entire issue. The product of some 18 months of reporting, it tells the story of the catastrophe that has fractured the Arab world since the invasion of Iraq 13 years ago, leading to the rise of ISIS and the global refugee crisis. The geography of this catastrophe is broad and its causes are many, but its consequences — war and uncertainty throughout the world — are familiar to us all. Scott Anderson’s story gives the reader a visceral sense of how it all unfolded, through the eyes of six characters in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan. Accompanying Anderson’s text are 10 portfolios by the photographer Paolo Pellegrin, drawn from his extensive travels across the region over the last 14 years, as well as a landmark virtual-reality experience that embeds the viewer with the Iraqi fighting forces during the battle to retake Falluja. 

It is unprecedented for us to focus so much energy and attention on a single story, and to ask our readers to do the same. We would not do so were we not convinced that what follows is one of the most clear-eyed, powerful and human explanations of what has gone wrong in this region that you will ever read.

TED-Ed: How did Hitler rise to power?

Alex Gendler and Anthony Hazard: How did Hitler rise to power?



- Open Culture: How Did Hitler Rise to Power? : New TED-ED Animation Provides a Case Study in How Fascists Get Democratically Elected

歷史永不終結：奄奄一息的自由民主政體

（PS On Point是Project Syndicate的新欄目，綜合PS各人文章總論當前國際熱門話題。這篇從多國政局發展談奄奄一息的liberal democracy自由民主政體）

Project Syndicate - PS On Point - Yascha Mounk: Trumpism - A New Era in World Politics?

What do the coup attempt in Turkey, Donald Trump’s US presidential candidacy, the Brexit referendum, and the rise of populist parties in France, Germany, and elsewhere have in common? They all reflect deep anxieties among many citizens about the functioning of their democracies and the openness of their societies. 

We are accustomed to thinking of our political system as a set of countervailing forces, in which discontent among one segment of the population leads to corrective action, like a social program to ease their problems and defuse their anger. But once the system becomes sufficiently dysfunctional, countervailing forces may give way to mutually reinforcing feedback loops. 

This implies that redistribution and compensation of globalization’s losers will not be enough, and that liberal democracy is likely to become an increasingly unstable political compound. As the conflict between liberalism and democracy escalates, we should expect two new regime types to emerge. One is illiberal democracy, in which public policy reflects populist frustration and anger, regardless of the cost to economic health or the rights of minorities. The second is what I have called “undemocratic liberalism,” a system in which rational economic policies and the rule of law are upheld by technocratic elites who routinely overrule their supposed constituents. 

Either way, Lévy’s “bling brigades” herald more than an age of bad taste. They remind us that the political epoch in which we could trust that the champions of continuity would ultimately defeat the agents of disruption is over, probably for good.

相關閱讀：

- 另一篇PS On Point： Lies, Liars, and Lawlessness

The age of Erdoğan, Trump, and Putin, with its representatives’ contempt for rules and norms, is generating serious challenges to global peace and prosperity with alarming frequency. Is there a way forward that doesn’t lead backward?

- Stephen Walt: The Collapse of the Liberal World Order

liberal societies are in trouble today because they are vulnerable to being hijacked by groups or individuals who take advantage of the very freedoms upon which liberal societies are based. As Donald Trump has been proving all year (and as Jean-Marie Le Pen, Recep Erdogan, Geert Wilders, and other political entrepreneurs have shown in the past), leaders or movements whose commitment to liberal principles is at best skin-deep can take advantage of the principles of open society and use it to rally a popular following. And there is nothing about a democratic order that ensures such efforts will invariably fail.

Fullalove!

這幾天都在看英聯邦運動會的游泳項目。

看到她名字那刻，幾乎忘掉活在一地仇恨的世界



I love her ... name !!!

London then, Beijing now

由曾堯留言。

Remembering Mandela

Cualquier Sistema 無視我們意願建立的任何制度必被推倒

Leonard Cohen的一首反詩Any System，向來讀者不多，也談不上引起過什麼社會迴響。

Any system you contrive without us

will be brought down

We warned you before

and nothing that you built has stood

Hear it as you lean over your blueprint

Hear it as you roll up your sleeve

Hear it once again

Any system you contrive without us

will be brought down

You have your drugs

You have your guns

You have your Pyramids your Pentagons

With all your grass and bullets

you cannot hunt us any more

All that we disclose of ourselves forever

is this warning

Nothing that you built has stood

Any system you contrive without us

will be brought down

（Any System來自他1972年出版的詩集The Energy of Slaves。Cohen告訴當權者：無視我們意願建立的任何制度，必被推倒。不是沒有警告過你，而你也知道，過往築起來的無一尚存）


在2007年的一張致敬演唱會大碟Acordes Con Leonard Cohen（According to Leonard Cohen，演唱會全本）中，Constantino Romero以西班牙文吟詩 ...


... 竟令Cualquier Sistema在其後亂紛紛慘兮兮的地球上成為有力抗爭詩！














還有Anonymous版




Any System，是時候來個中譯版，到處吟唱了！

無視我們意願建立的任何制度必被推倒

何必把諾貝爾文學獎神化或政治化

諾貝爾文學獎，對我來說，不過是一個國際地位崇高的文學終生成就獎，由那麼幾個人閉門每年從全世界文學家中選出一人獲獎，爭議是必然的，不存在沒有爭議的人選。

切忌把諾貝爾文學獎神化，或政治化。很多批評諾貝爾文學獎政治化的人或政權，自身立場就非常政治化。

（以中文寫作獲諾獎的高行健和莫言，他們的作品我沒有讀過）

滿足龐大讀者需求

為何媒體刊登大量淫賤新聞，無日無之？

答案會不會很簡單，因為有龐大讀者需求？

部分人愛追淫賤新聞，而且直認不諱。

更多人不覺得自己愛讀，甚至讀後會拋下一句“唉，世風日下”，卻永不跳過，讀之可也。

當然，有人讀完要登高寫譴責文章，或轉貼FB加上“媒體只知登這種東西令人痛心”評語

也有人追讀所有相關訊息一字不漏，然後寫反思文章，各打五十大板。

總之，有龐大讀者需求推動，媒體...

25 Films You Must See Before You Die ...

... and you'd probably die from watching them non-stop over a 50-hour period.



Great World Movies Marathon, starting 8:30pm tonight, on the World Movies Channel.

Friday 18 November
8.30pm #25 – Jules Et Jim
10.15pm #24 – Y Tu Mama Tambien

Saturday 19 November
12.00am #23 – The Rules Of The Game
1.45am #22 – Les Enfants Du Paradis
4.45am #21 – Belle De Jour
6.25am #20 – 8 ½
8.40am #19 – The Bicycle Thief
10.10am #18 – Women On The Verge…
11.40am #17 – Wings Of Desire
1.50pm #16 – The Seventh Seal
3.30pm #15 – Breathless
5.00pm #14 – Mon Oncle
6.55pm #13 – La Dolce Vita
9.45pm #12 – In The Mood For Love
11.25pm #11 – Metropolis

Sunday 20 November
1.55am #10 – Three Colours: Blue
3.30am #9 – Ring
5.10am #8 – Run Lola Run
6.30am #7 – Das Boot
9.00am #6 – Seven Samurai
12.20pm #5 – City Of God
2.30pm #4 – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
4.30pm #3 – Cinema Paradiso
6.35pm #2 – Life Is Beautiful
8:30pm #1 – Amélie

The Net aids dictatorships ... let's take it back!

TED talk by Evgeny Morozov

Morozov is the author of The Net Delusion
Also: Morozov on The Net Delusion | Internet alone cannot free the Middle East


TED talk by Rebecca MacKinnon

Joe Sacco, Palestine （巴勒斯坦）

幾十年來，不斷看到關於以色列和巴勒斯坦的鬥爭仇殺新聞，但對事情的來龍去脈卻只有皮毛認識。

作為漫畫初哥，此前讀Art Spiegelman的Maus，驚覺原來漫畫也可以處理非常嚴肅的題材。到讀Joe Sacco的大部頭漫畫Palestine，更覺奇之又奇，冷門中之冷門：作者花兩個月在西岸/加薩走廊，採訪巴勒斯坦人，談他們在以色列佔領區內的“集中營”式生活及對和平或持續抗爭的看法，並將自己的親身體驗和感想繪成此書。

我本來對能否讀完此書沒有十足信心。幸好，雖然書近300頁厚，文字又多又難懂，還是滿有趣味地幾天完成。以色列/巴勒斯坦這議題在西方向來非常政治化爭吵不斷，關於此書的評論可想而知也大多集中於到底作者的描述是否真實公正。於我而言，這不是重點（我了解太淺無從判斷），反而是此書讓我對這議題多了一種踏實感，很多抽象模糊的概念（佔領區，起義，拘禁坐牢，難民營等等）都通過漫畫具體化了。


- Fantagraphics Books: Palestine
- Wikipedia: Palestine (comics)
- Homage to Joe Sacco (Edward Said為書寫的序言)

Exhibition: World Press Photo 11

World Press Photo 11 @ Brisbane Powerhouse





（Two winners, from Powerhouse website)

World Press Photo: Winners Gallery 2011

觀讀聽流水帳 11-3-20

慚愧慚愧，本星期去了Sunshine Coast（陽光海岸）玩，書只讀了Michael Mandelbaum的The Frugal Superpower - America's Global Leadership in a Cash-Strapped Era。且看窮鬼如何繼續當霸主。

我要去英國吃喝玩樂！

昨天，澳元一舉沖破0.6英鎊大關！


(PACIFIC Exchange Rate Service)

從上圖可見，21世紀的頭幾年，澳元一直在35-40p範圍徘徊（亦即1英鎊=2.5-3澳元），後來上移至40-43p水平。全球金融風暴的來臨，令局面起了根本變化。從08年底開始，澳元扶搖直上，英鎊江河日下。到如今，1英鎊只能兌換1.5澳元多一點。

我要去英國做大爺，花銀子，吃喝玩樂！


(PACIFIC Exchange Rate Service)

（同期間，澳元兌歐羅雖也自08年底急升，但速度較緩，目前匯率也不過只略高於過去10年的一般水平）