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2017-01-25

免費下載 George Orwell 1984

人渣trump上場,身邊人公然散播alternative facts,令george orwell的政治寓言小說1984重登流行榜。

1984出版和orwell去世至今雖已近70年,此書在美國和歐盟還未進入public domain,讀者仍須付費使用。

澳洲版權法例有別,orwell的1984和animal farm早已可免費下載閱讀。

不錯,此書amazon kindle版售價低,$1有找。但若希望省下這一塊錢,或不習慣網上付款購物的話,可往university of adelaide的ebooks@adelaide網頁,無須註冊免費網上閱讀或下載電子書(點擊此連結或右圖進入網址)


(點擊連結進入animal farm網址


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另,1984年推出的1984改編電影,飾演Winston Smith的John Hurt,剛去世

2017-01-23

女選民與川普

可能因為一個比川普(Trump)登基更多人參與的群眾活動即將舉行,在Women's March on Washington前夕(美國和世界其他城市也有同樣活動),連續讀到兩篇女選民與川普的分析文章,其中重點·審視為何過半白女,寧選川普不要希拉莉。

- Melissa Deckman: Why did women vote for Trump?

- Vox: The women who helped Donald Trump win

Quartz video: The women who voted for Donald Trump

後來,在電視上報刊上社交媒體上看關於Women's March的報導,還是聚焦於明星名人意見領袖大駡川普。

夠了啦,這策略,選前未能令更多女選民棄川普,難道選後會不一樣嗎?來來去去都在同溫層中互相激勵,個人認為不致毫無意義,但實效成疑。在這一點上,我總覺得媒體(甚至包括很多所謂進步媒體)有時在幫倒忙。

- Hanna Kozlowska: Women for and against Trump discuss women’s rights in a post-Obama America (Quartz)

- Vox: What celebrities? Scenes from the brilliant, messy, chaotic Women's March


- New York Times: After Success of Women’s March, a Question Remains: What’s Next?

The challenge facing the organizers is how to channel the resolve and outrage of an organic protest into action that produces political change at the local and national level. It is a goal that has eluded other popular movements, from Occupy Wall Street to Black Lives Matter. And it is a daunting task, given that Democrats were unable to defeat President Trump in 2016 despite an emerging demographic majority.

2017-01-15

希拉蕊「賣台真相」

這兩天看了好些「希拉蕊賣台」貼文,從報導,議論,到大呼小叫的都有,覺得很搞笑。下面是我不自量力的分析。為了行文方便,下文將中英夾雜,請見諒。

先全文引述一篇Taiwan Passport Sticker的評論

希拉蕊在電子郵件中表示「放任中國併吞台灣以換取美國對中國債務減免」很「CLEVER」
在台灣,有許多人表示對於美國民主黨總統參選人希拉蕊克林頓女士(Hillary Clinton)飲恨落選感到惋惜,但TPS小編希望在這裡提醒大家:「美國總統不管是誰當選,他或是她的任務就是捍衛美國的國家利益。為了這個利益,美國隨時都願意出賣其他國家,包括台灣。台灣要成為主權獨立的『台灣共和國 Republic of Taiwan』,台灣人要保衛台灣的自由與民主,最終靠著還是自己。」 
在 Wikileaks維基解密所公布的希拉蕊私人郵件中,有著這麼一封對於台灣人來說讀起來特別殘酷的信件。再五年前的今天(2011年11月11日),希拉蕊克林頓的顧問Jake Sullivan分享了一篇Paul V. Kane所撰寫的名為《拯救我們的經濟,拋棄台灣吧!To Save Our Economy, Ditch Taiwan》文章,文章中建議歐巴馬政府讓任中國併吞台灣,藉此換取中國政府註銷對美國的1.14兆美元債權,讓美國政府在不增稅的情況下減緩可能到來的國債危機。 
然後當時為美國國務卿的希拉蕊克林頓簡短地回覆「I saw it and thought it was so clever. Let’s discuss.(我看到了這篇文章,我覺得這想法很聰明,讓我們來討論吧)」。希拉蕊克林頓即使在檯面上說著要重返亞太,但私底下卻也對於「拋棄台灣以拯救美國國債問題」表示「so clever」,讀到這裡,您應該可以感受到,美國對於台灣問題的態度有多麼現實吧! 
台灣社論對於哪一位美國總統候選人選上,「對台灣比較好」,有許多討論。TPS小編建議,我們可以換個角度想想,台灣人要爭取獨立,當前與其寄望外來勢力的幫助,不如先整建好台灣的實力以及紛紛擾擾的內部共識。讓成立「台灣共和國 Republic of Taiwan」成為台灣人的主流意識,讓台灣民族相信自己可以決定台灣的未來,讓台灣成為一個民主自由、注重人權、富足發達的國度,才是我們目前最必須要積極努力的方向!

此文寫於去年11月。為何BuzzOrange等中英文媒體兩個月後重提舊事且引起廣泛注意,不得而知。

先說回維基解密公布的那篇希拉蕊電郵:Hillary Clinton於2011年11月11日回覆她的Deputy Chief of Staff/Director of Policy Planning Jake Sullivan的電郵。在原電郵中,Sullivan附錄Paul Kane剛發表在紐約時報Opinion Pages的一篇評論文章To Save Our Economy, Ditch Taiwan(為了挽救我們的經濟,拋棄台灣:文中建議美國跟中國閉門商討,以註銷中國所持的美國國債為條件,換取美國放棄保護台灣)。當時Sullivan在以"Interesting article"為題的電郵正文寫著:

For your reading pleasure while you endure open governance and try to steal glances at your blackberry:

可見當時希拉蕊正主持或參與某會議,Sullivan傳給她一篇他認為有意思的文章,讓她不時偷看手機閱讀解悶。希拉蕊約半小時後回覆:

I saw it and thought it was so clever. Let's discuss. 
Also, we only have 15 minutes left in here.

希拉蕊說:已讀,非常聰明。我們談談吧。

由此可見,這電郵往來,其實是她跟助手忙中偷閒電郵往來,調子輕鬆,根本不是什麼正式的政策建議交流。至於其後是否真有就此文章談談,無從稽考。

所以,Taiwan Passport Sticker和近幾天的煞有介事評論/譴責/反思,大大過頭了。

至於Paul Kane的文章,也可略作補充。列位看官,雖說2011年底美國仍在金融風暴打擊下艱難爬起,不覺得他的閉門交易建議非常誇張嗎?但這可是登在紐約時報的評論啊!文章發表後幾天,Kane其實曾向兩家傳媒發表補充,表明他同意"GDP matters more than force"的看法,擔憂美國作為超級大國卻債台高築,且要花國力維護對自身戰略利益不高(保護台灣)的事項。不過,就那閉門交易建議而言,只是satire,不能當真:

What is hilarious is that some academics in Taiwan and elsewhere stayed up late at night reading the piece literally and trying to build cases to refute its content, and castigating my logic and morals, and cooking-up deep financial analysis of how a deal would impact the U.S. Treasury Bill markets… Take your wife out to dinner! Professor or Joe Blogger, it was time miss spent.

個人認為,Hillary Clinton和Jake Sullivan等老手,怎會看不出來,不過覺得文章interesting/clever,值得一讀而已。


相關閱讀:
- 黎蝸藤:政治潔癖幼稚病下的「希拉蕊棄台論」


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美國以某種形式跟中國交易,以巨大經濟利益換取放棄保護台灣的承諾,有可能嗎?

個人看法是,當今美國政壇內,不論共和黨還是民主黨人,跟Paul Kane想法原則上相近的,大有人在。但敢於提出討論(更不要說倡議付諸實行)的恐怕絕少。

但即將上任美國總統的Donald Trump,一不是美國政壇建制份子(且非常敵視建制),二是倡導Make America Great Again的生意人,不能排除他會嘗試走這路徑。選舉前,說川普(特朗普)上台,中國將是大贏家的,固然太天真。當選後上任前,從他的言行猜度中國會是大輸家的,也是太早下定論。

Trump本人,對「賣台換利」或「棄一中保台灣」都沒什麼堅持。從目前跡象看,他上台後會先以後者向中國施壓「謀利」。至於他接著會不會轉走「賣台換利」路線?很難說,但比較清楚的是,「賣台換利」和「棄一中」看似兩個極端,其實從生意人角度看並不。台灣,恐怕難免成為Trump的談判籌碼(bargaining chips)。

Let's discuss 我們談談吧......

2016-10-17

How Trump Happened

Joseph Stiglitz: How Trump Happened

There are two messages US political elites should be hearing. The simplistic neo-liberal market-fundamentalist theories that have shaped so much economic policy during the last four decades are badly misleading, with GDP growth coming at the price of soaring inequality. Trickle-down economics hasn’t and won’t work. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum. The Thatcher-Reagan “revolution,” which rewrote the rules and restructured markets for the benefit of those at the top, succeeded all too well in increasing inequality, but utterly failed in its mission to increase growth. 
This leads to the second message: we need to rewrite the rules of the economy once again, this time to ensure that ordinary citizens benefit. Politicians in the US and elsewhere who ignore this lesson will be held accountable. Change entails risk. But the Trump phenomenon – and more than a few similar political developments in Europe – has revealed the far greater risks entailed by failing to heed this message: societies divided, democracies undermined, and economies weakened.


Related readings:
- Yascha Mounk: Trumpism: A New Era in World Politics?
- Stephen Walt: The Collapse of the Liberal World Order

2016-07-17

歷史永不終結:奄奄一息的自由民主政體

(PS On Point是Project Syndicate的新欄目,綜合PS各人文章總論當前國際熱門話題。這篇從多國政局發展談奄奄一息的liberal democracy自由民主政體)

Project Syndicate - PS On Point - Yascha Mounk: Trumpism - A New Era in World Politics?
What do the coup attempt in Turkey, Donald Trump’s US presidential candidacy, the Brexit referendum, and the rise of populist parties in France, Germany, and elsewhere have in common? They all reflect deep anxieties among many citizens about the functioning of their democracies and the openness of their societies. 
We are accustomed to thinking of our political system as a set of countervailing forces, in which discontent among one segment of the population leads to corrective action, like a social program to ease their problems and defuse their anger. But once the system becomes sufficiently dysfunctional, countervailing forces may give way to mutually reinforcing feedback loops. 
This implies that redistribution and compensation of globalization’s losers will not be enough, and that liberal democracy is likely to become an increasingly unstable political compound. As the conflict between liberalism and democracy escalates, we should expect two new regime types to emerge. One is illiberal democracy, in which public policy reflects populist frustration and anger, regardless of the cost to economic health or the rights of minorities. The second is what I have called “undemocratic liberalism,” a system in which rational economic policies and the rule of law are upheld by technocratic elites who routinely overrule their supposed constituents. 
Either way, Lévy’s “bling brigades” herald more than an age of bad taste. They remind us that the political epoch in which we could trust that the champions of continuity would ultimately defeat the agents of disruption is over, probably for good.


相關閱讀:

- 另一篇PS On Point: Lies, Liars, and Lawlessness
The age of Erdoğan, Trump, and Putin, with its representatives’ contempt for rules and norms, is generating serious challenges to global peace and prosperity with alarming frequency. Is there a way forward that doesn’t lead backward?

- Stephen Walt: The Collapse of the Liberal World Order
liberal societies are in trouble today because they are vulnerable to being hijacked by groups or individuals who take advantage of the very freedoms upon which liberal societies are based. As Donald Trump has been proving all year (and as Jean-Marie Le Pen, Recep Erdogan, Geert Wilders, and other political entrepreneurs have shown in the past), leaders or movements whose commitment to liberal principles is at best skin-deep can take advantage of the principles of open society and use it to rally a popular following. And there is nothing about a democratic order that ensures such efforts will invariably fail.

2016-07-15

Thoughts on the sociology of Brexit 前景無望下的選擇

Will Davies: Thoughts on the sociology of Brexit

今早在臉書再貼這篇好文,因為我覺得其中一段的看法很有意思,對了解英國脫歐,美國Trump勃起,甚至香港港獨都有參考作用:

BREXIT WAS NOT FUELLED BY A VISION OF THE FUTURE 
Crucially, [researchers of the Doncaster project] observed that – in strong contrast to the Scottish ‘Yes’ movement – Brexit was not fuelled by hope for a different future. On the contrary, many Leavers believed that withdrawing from the EU wouldn’t really change things one way or the other, but they still wanted to do it. I’ve long suspected that, on some unconscious level, things could be even stranger than this: the self-harm inflicted by Brexit could potentially be part of its appeal. 
This taps into a much broader cultural and political malaise, that also appears to be driving the rise of Donald Trump in the US. Amongst people who have utterly given up on the future, political movements don’t need to promise any desirable and realistic change. If anything, they are more comforting and trustworthy if predicated on the notion that the future is beyond rescue, for that chimes more closely with people’s private experiences. ... it seems clear that – beyond the rhetoric of ‘Great Britain’ and ‘democracy’ – Brexit was never really articulated as a viable policy, and only ever as a destructive urge. 
Thatcher and Reagan rode to power by promising a brighter future, which never quite materialised other than for a minority with access to elite education and capital assets. The contemporary populist promise to make Britain or American ‘great again’ is not made in the same way. It is not a pledge or a policy platform; it’s not to be measured in terms of results. When made by the likes of Boris Johnson, it’s not even clear if it’s meant seriously or not. It’s more an offer of a collective real-time halucination, that can be indulged in like a video game. 
The Remain campaign continued to rely on forecasts, warnings and predictions, in the hope that eventually people would be dissuaded from ‘risking it’. But to those that have given up on the future already, this is all just more political rhetoric. In any case, the entire practice of modelling the future in terms of ‘risk’ has lost credibility, as evidenced by the now terminal decline of opinion polling as a tool for political control.


(此文也收錄在Verso新出版的Brexit電子書The Brexit Crisis: A Verso Report。目前仍是免費下載)