Haass批Pompeo，並論美對台政策應模糊或清晰

美國外交政策研究界大老Richard Haass抨擊了Mike Pompeo指過往對華政策失敗必須正面迎擊中國的「新冷戰宣言」後，交出了他認為該如何應對中國的看法。

- Richard Haass: To the Brink with China

After the US election, the two governments should start a quiet strategic dialogue to develop rules of the road for the bilateral relationship. The US will need to abandon unrealistic hopes that it can foster regime change in China and instead focus on shaping China’s external behavior. China will have to accept that there are limits to what the US and its allies will tolerate when it comes to unilateral acts that seek to alter the status quo in the South China Sea, Taiwan, or with the Senkaku Islands.

In the long run, the best hope is a US-China relationship of managed competition, which would avoid conflict and allow for limited cooperation when it is in both countries’ interest. This may not seem like much, but it is quite ambitious given where things are and where they are heading.

簡言之，他並非無視中國近年來一系列橫蠻行徑足以令美國感到威脅，對中國行徑背後的稱霸動機也不否認。他跟Trump政府或對華鷹派最大分歧，主要在如何應對。基本上他認為過往幾十年的「交往+誘導」政策仍是最佳方案，可說是「未壞掉不必修補 if it ain't broke, don't fix it」論的一種。

（我認為他過份滿足眼前勉強的安逸，忽略了放任下去，很快會跨越臨界點，往後美國不單不能誘導中國，只有反被威逼的份兒）

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早前把Mike Pompeo的「新冷戰宣言」批評得一文不值的美國外交政策研究界大老Richard Haass，剛在Foreign Affairs發表新文，題為American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous/美國對台灣的支持必須毫不含糊。觀乎他對Pompeo宣稱，美國過往對華政策失敗今後必須正面迎擊中國的觀點非常反感，這次他對台海政策的看法有點令人意外。

- Richard Haass and David Sacks: American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous - To Keep the Peace, Make Clear to China That Force Won’t Stand

他認為，美國四十年來對台的「Strategic Ambiguity/策略性模糊」政策已過時，不足以制衡一個越益壯大而強硬的中國。取而代之的，應是「Strategic Clarity/策略性清晰」政策，清楚表明一旦中國對台用武，美國將如何回應。

（附 Bonnie Glaser等人對Haass文的回應，與Haass對回應的回應：Dire Straits - Should American Support for Taiwan Be Ambiguous?）